top > global warming > China CO2 2030 According to China's 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030), CO2 emissions will rise again By: Yuzo Tanaka, Japanese Researcher Published July 20, 2026 Introduction China, the world's largest emitter of CO2 with emissions that have continued to rise, drew attention for the prospect that its emissions would begin to decline in 2025. According to a communiqué released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China in late February 2026, CO2 emissions per unit of GDP fell by 5% year-on-year in 2025, while the GDP growth rate stood at 5%. Although the figure falls within the margin of error, the calculation indicates a 0.25% year-on-year decrease in total CO2 emissions. The 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030), which outlines guidelines for national governance and socio-economic development over the next five years, was approved at the National People's Congress this past March. This article presents projections of how China's CO2 emissions will change over the coming five years in accordance with the plan. Although China reports its annual year-on-year reduction rate for CO2 emissions per unit of GDP, a report published by Carbon Brief points out that the calculation methodology for these emissions was retroactively altered. This article presents an analysis based on CO2 emission figures derived from the new, revised methodology. Points raised in the Carbon Brief report In its "Nationally Determined Contribution" (NDC) regarding greenhouse gas reductions, China has announced a target for reducing CO2 emissions per unit of GDP (referred to as CO2/GDP). A reduction target for this same metric is also outlined in its Five-Year Plan. The following report by a CREA analyst, published on CarbonBrief, criticizes the fact that, because the reduction in CO2 intensity (CO2/GDP) under the 2020–2025 five-year plan fell significantly short of the 18% target, the calculation methodology was altered to report a 17.7% reduction. Naturally, such practices are unacceptable. 　“Analysis: China’s new carbon metric leaves Germany-sized gap in its emissions” It is stated that the calculation basis for CO2 emissions prior to the change involved using the total consumption of coal, oil, and natural gas, along with their respective CO2 emission factors. In addition to being burned for energy, some fossil fuels are used as raw materials for manufacturing products such as plastics. In such cases, the carbon contained in a portion of the fossil fuel remains within the product until it is discarded and incinerated, meaning no CO2 is emitted during the interim. Furthermore, processes such as cement and lime production generate CO2 emissions derived from limestone. Calculating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for submission to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) requires a vast amount of data, effort, and time. China's GHG emissions for 2021 were reported in December 2024. I believe the CO2 calculation criteria used prior to the change were adopted to enable the early reporting of CO2 reduction figures. Although details regarding the new criteria for calculating CO2 emissions have not been reported, it is expected that they will provide an estimate of CO2 emissions that reflects actual emission levels. Changing the calculation criteria simply to meet reduction targets is out of the question, and I have no intention of defending China, but if there is a simple method to calculate CO2 emissions that more accurately reflects reality, then making the switch is rational. An attempt at a simplified calculation of CO2 emissions The author published the following report on their webpage in January 2026. 　"China's 2030 CO2 reduction target difficult to achieve, according to a simplified simulation” In the report, we employed a simplified method to calculate CO2 emissions that reflects actual conditions; after confirming that the results closely align with the figures reported by China, we used this method to calculate actual emissions for the 2015–2024 period and to project emissions through 2030. Please refer to the report for details on the CO2 calculation methodology. In its NDC, China has pledged to reduce its CO2/GDP ratio by 65% by 2030 compared to the 2005 baseline; this report examined the extent to which the deployment of renewable energy and the shift from coal to natural gas must be expanded from 2025 onwards to achieve that target. This article is a follow-up to the aforementioned report; it outlines projected CO2 emissions for the 2026–2030 period based on the targets set in the 15th Five-Year Plan. I had assumed that the CO2/GDP reduction rate, which reported annually by China's National Bureau of Statistics with the caveat that the figures are "preliminary estimates", was simply calculated using a rough estimation method. While I might have investigated further had it been labeled "carbon intensity," I had never actually taken an interest in the calculation method itself. Upon reading the CarbonBrief report, I realized, quite unexpectedly, that I had anticipated the change China made to the calculation criteria for CO2/GDP. This paper presents projections of CO2 emissions through 2030 based on a new calculation method. GHG and CO2 emissions Before discussing China's future CO2 emissions, I will begin by presenting the GHG emissions data up to 2025. China has reported its GHG emissions to the UNFCCC on a roughly biennial basis up to 2021. Figures 1 and 2 show the breakdown of GHG and CO2 emissions for 2021. These data are from the "First Biennial Transparency Report on Climate Change (December 2024)." GHG in Figure 1 shows the breakdown of CO2, CH4, N2O, and F-gases. Emissions are expressed as the percentage of CO2 equivalents (CO2eq), excluding emissions from the land use, land-use change, and forestry (LULUCF) sector. CO2 emissions account for 81% of GHG emissions. Emissions from the LULUCF sector were minus 1,315 MtCO2eq (removals), mostly due to CO2. Figure 2 shows a more detailed breakdown of CO2 emissions. The numbers at the beginning of the emission source names in the figure, such as 1.A.1, are numbers specified in the GHG emissions reporting standards of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), with 1.A.1 to 1.A.4 representing 1.A fuel combustion emissions, and 2.A to 2.C representing 2. industrial processes and product use (IPPU) emissions. CO2 from fuel combustion accounts for 87% of total CO2 emissions. Figure 3 shows the specific product processes with high emissions instead of the industrial sector for the IPPU sector shown in Figure 2. The cement process accounts for 6.9% of total CO2 emissions, followed by lime process at 1.6%, petrochemical process at 1.4%, and ammonia process at 1.2%. CO2 emitted from using fossil fuels as fuel is classified as fuel combustion CO2. On the other hand, CO2 derived from limestone, such as in the cement and lime production processes, and CO2 emitted from fossil fuels used as raw materials in plastics production, are classified as IPPU CO2. Figure 4 shows the trends in China's reported GHG and CO2 emissions, both with and without consideration of LULUCF. Note that 2005 is the base year for China's GHG emission reductions. The rate of increase in emissions from 2005 to 2021 is approximately 1.7 times for GHGs and approximately 1.8 times for CO2, regardless of whether LULUCF is implemented. Figure 4 shows that emissions growth was slow in the mid-2010s. This is due to restrictions on coal use, particularly in small and medium-sized facilities, which were implemented as a measure to combat serious air pollution caused by coal use, thereby curbing the increase in CO2 emissions. Comparison with the Author's Calculated CO2 Values Figure 5 presents a comparison between the author's calculated values ​​for CO2 emissions up to 2025 and the values ​​reported by China shown in Figure 4. These calculations are based on data such as fossil fuel energy consumption, non-fossil fuel power generation, and product output in the IPPU sector; please refer to the aforementioned report for further details. The scope of the CO2 aggregation corresponds to Figure 3. The figures represent CO2 emissions that include the waste sector, albeit to a minor extent, but exclude LULUCF. Although China has reported only four data points, I believe my calculated values ​​align well with that data. Energy Consumption Figure 6 shows energy consumption data, which is part of the data used to calculate CO2 emissions. China's total energy consumption is equivalent to the International Energy Agency's (IEA) total energy supply (TES). China's total energy consumption is broken down into four categories: coal, petroleum, natural gas, and primary electricity and other energy. The energy unit generally used is the standard ton of coal equivalent (tce), which is converted at 1 tce = 7 Gcal. "Primary electricity and other energy" refers to energy sources other than fossil fuels. Within this, "primary electricity" represents the amount of electricity generated by nuclear, hydroelectric, wind, and solar power, expressed as the input energy required for coal-fired power generation. Note that "other energy" within "primary electricity and other energy" appears to refer to renewable energy consumption other than electricity. However, in this article, this is the remainder after subtracting the calculated value of primary electricity from the statistical data for "primary electricity and other energy," and accounts for approximately 2% of total energy consumption. The proportion of coal consumption has been steadily declining, but still accounts for 51% of total energy consumption and 66% of fossil fuel consumption in 2025. Since 2020, the increase rates of wind and solar power generation have been higher than those of hydropower and nuclear power, with particularly notable increase in solar power in 2024 and 2025. 15th Five-Year Plan The "Outline of the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development of the People's Republic of China" sets forth the following targets regarding carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. - The GDP growth rate target for 2026 is set at 4.5–5%, while for the period up to 2030, the rate is to be set within an appropriate range each year. Note that the GDP growth rate for 2025 was 5%. - Under the 15th Five-Year Plan, CO2 emissions per unit of GDP are to be reduced by 17%. Notably, the reduction achieved under the 14th Five-Year Plan was reported at 17.7%. - Reduce total energy consumption per unit of GDP by approximately 10% under the 15th Five-Year Plan. - Under the 15th Five-Year Plan, the share of non-fossil fuels in total energy consumption is set to reach 25%; for comparison, the figure stood at 21.7% under the 14th Five-Year Plan. Note that the GDP mentioned above is considered to be real GDP. CO2 emissions set to rise again There is no doubt that the GDP growth rate will trend downward in the future. In this analysis, we assumed a GDP growth rate of 4.8% for 2026 and examined two scenarios for 2030: 4% (Scenario 1) and 3.6% (Scenario 2). The average GDP growth rates for the 2026–2030 period are 4.4% and 4.2%, respectively. Note that while the 15th Five-Year Plan includes a target to double per capita GDP by 2035 compared to 2020 levels, this target is based on nominal GDP figures and is therefore of limited use in projecting the GDP growth rate for 2030. Once the GDP growth rate through 2030 is determined, the CO2 emissions for 2030 are uniquely determined by adhering to the reduction targets for CO2 emissions per unit of GDP set forth in the five-year plan. Note that in this paper, these CO2 emissions are treated as identical to the author's previously mentioned calculated CO2 values. Furthermore, the total energy consumption and non-fossil fuel energy consumption for 2030 are uniquely determined based on the target values ​​for total energy consumption per unit of GDP and the non-fossil fuel ratio. Figure 7 illustrates the projected trends—based on the assumption that the target values ​​from the aforementioned 15th Five-Year Plan change linearly from 2026 to 2030—for GDP, CO2 emissions, total energy consumption, fossil fuel energy consumption, and non-fossil fuel energy consumption through 2030, relative to the assumed GDP for "Scenario 1." Data up to 2025 represents actual figures. This graph illustrates trends by setting the 2025 actual values ​​for each item as a baseline of 100. This method of presentation was chosen to display five different metrics, such as CO2 emissions, on a single graph and to clearly show how the rates of increase (the slopes of the lines) change around the year 2025. As shown in Figure 7, the year-on-year growth rate of CO2 emissions declined in 2024, and by 2025, the level was virtually unchanged from the previous year (my calculations show a +0.3% increase, though this may be within the margin of error). However, the figures are projected to rise again from 2026 onwards, peaking in 2029 with a 3% increase compared to 2025, and showing a 2.9% increase in 2030. Figure 8 presents a comparison between Scenario 1 and Scenario 2, showing an enlarged view of the graphs from 2022 onwards. All graphs for Scenario 2, which has a  lower GDP growth rate than Scenario 1, are ​​slightly lower than those of Scenario 1. In Scenario 2, CO2 emissions peak in 2028, representing a 2.5% increase compared to 2025, and stand 2% higher than the 2025 level in 2030. Reasons for Changes in CO2 Emissions While the rate of growth in China's total energy consumption has slowed, the volume continues to rise. Meanwhile, CO2 emissions are increasing again after the year-on-year increase dropped to nearly zero in 2025. The reason for this, as indicated by the rate of increase (the slope of the graph) in non-fossil fuel energy consumption shown in Figure 7, is that the sharp rise in non-fossil fuel energy consumption during 2024 and 2025 caused the increase in fossil fuel energy consumption to drop to near zero, thereby resulting in a near-zero increase in CO2 emissions. Under the new five-year plan starting in 2026, the growth in non-fossil fuel energy consumption will slow, while the year-on-year increase in fossil fuel energy consumption will rise, leading to an increase in CO2 emissions. Subsequently, as the year-on-year increase in total energy consumption gradually declines, CO2 emissions will shift to a downward trend by the end of the 2020s. If the fuel mix remains constant, an increase in consumption leads to a rise in CO2 emissions at a roughly proportional rate. In a scenario where total energy consumption continues to rise, shifting CO2 emissions toward a decline—by curbing the growth of fossil fuel use through the expanded adoption of non-fossil fuels—requires increasing the use of non-fossil fuels each year by an amount that exceeds the growth in total energy consumption. For a country where total energy consumption is increasing at an annual rate of several percent, continuing to reduce CO2 emissions is more difficult than imagined. Note that while the increase in CO2 emissions is virtually zero in 2025, fossil fuel energy consumption shows a slight increase. This is because the CO2 emissions figures include emissions derived from limestone during cement production, as well as emissions from the IPPU sector shown in Figure 2. Increase in Solar Power Capacity The sharp rise in non-fossil fuel energy consumption in 2024 and 2025 was driven by a rapid increase in solar power generation which surged by approximately 40% year-on-year as shown in Figure 6. To reduce CO2 emissions directly resulting from the combustion of fossil fuels, effective approaches include expanding the use of renewable energy to lower fossil fuel consumption, or shifting from coal to natural gas to reduce the carbon intensity of the fossil fuels consumed. China imports approximately 40% of its natural gas, and due to the need to maintain energy self-sufficiency, the shift from coal to natural gas has not progressed significantly. Consequently, efforts to reduce CO2 emissions have primarily focused on expanding the adoption of wind and solar power. As a target under the five-year plan for 2020–2025, a goal was set to reduce CO2 emissions per unit of GDP by 18% compared to 2020 levels; I believe the expansion of solar power generation was undertaken to achieve this objective. Variable Renewable Energy Generation Wind and solar power are variable renewable energy generation where output fluctuates depending on weather conditions. Solar power, in particular, is characterized by a high ratio of peak power to average power. Consequently, during periods of peak solar output, the generated power can exceed electricity deman, even after reducing output from other sources, leading to situations where the amount of electricity fed into the grid must be curtailed. It is reported that China's average curtailment rates for both wind and solar power exceeded 5% in 2025. Curtailment rates are particularly high in the inland northwestern and northern regions, where large-scale variable renewable energy projects are concentrated, due to low electricity demand in those areas. To keep the output curtailment rate low, it is necessary to reinforce the power grid, thereby absorbing supply-demand imbalances across a wide area, and to advance grid operations to ensure a stable power supply. As the adoption of variable renewable energy generation increases further, it will likely also need energy storage to absorb supply-demand imbalances over time, as well as hydrogen storage, produced via water electrolysis using variable renewable energy, to handle seasonal fluctuations. The five-year plan for 2026–2030 appears to have been designed to strike a balance, incorporating measures such as grid reinforcement, by halting the excessive deployment of solar power, as evidenced by the slowdown in the growth rate of non-fossil fuel energy consumption shown in Figure 7. CO2 emissions in 2035 China's 2035 NDC target, announced in October 2025, states an intention to reduce GHG emissions by ７~10% from their peak level by 2035 and to aim for further improvements. Under the author's GDP growth Scenario 1, CO2 emissions would peak in 2029 at a level 3% higher than in 2025; consequently, the target for 2035 represents a reduction of approximately 4~7% compared to 2025 levels. This strikes me as a modest target for CO2 emission reductions over a ten-year horizon. Conclusion In recent years, the expansion of solar and wind power generation in China has been remarkable. However, I get the impression that these initiatives are being implemented more as a strategy for economic growth than as measures primarily aimed at addressing climate change. Regarding climate change countermeasures, while there is the issue of rising costs for natural gas imports, I believe it is necessary to rectify the excessive reliance on coal and advance the shift to natural gas as a fuel source. However, based on 2023 data, 0.8% of coal consumption was used for coal liquefaction and 1% for coal gasification. Furthermore, since around 2020, there has been an increase in C1 chemistry utilizing coal gasification as a feedstock, replacing petrochemical processes that typically rely on raw materials such as naphtha. To date, China has pursued climate change measures in a way that ensures they do not hinder economic growth. As evidenced by its commitment to reduce CO2 emissions only in terms of intensity relative to GDP. However, China is no longer a developing nation; it is a major power on par with the United States, and it is time for it to shoulder its responsibilities. It is India that will see a significant increase in CO2 emissions in the future, taking over from China.It is unreasonable to ask India, a country just beginning to stand at the threshold of prosperity, to prioritize climate change measures over economic growth. I believe a different approach is required. [ Author Biography ] Yuzo Tanaka Holds a Master’s degree in Mechanical Engineering from Waseda University. Joined a steel company, a predecessor to JFE, where worked in engineering and technology development within the energy sector. In connection with this article, please refer to my webpage, the Amazon Kindle edition of my book "A Common-Sense Approach to Japan’s Long-Term Strategy for Preventing Global Warming", and numerous submitted reports to the Japanese opinion platform "Agora."