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Abstract
Developing countries, which account for two-thirds of the world's CO2 emissions, have lower CO2 emissions per capita than developed countries and have significantly lower GDPs.
In order to become wealthy, developing countries will continue to experience economic growth and increase their consumption of energy and electricity.
Since a stable supply of cheap electricity is essential for economic growth,
wind and solar power are not suitable, and they will be introduced little
by little within the scope of economic affordability.
As a result, CO2 emissions in developing countries and the world will
continue to increase.
Trends in CO2 emissions by income group
The World Bank classifies countries into four categories based on their
GNI per capita: high income, upper-middle income, lower-middle income,
and low income.
The EU-28, including the UK, are classified as high income countries, with
the exception of Bulgaria. China and India are classified as upper-middle
income and lower-middle income countries, respectively. In the above figure,
income groups excluding these are indicated with a "-Mod.".
CO2 emissions in developed countries account for only one-third of the
world
Developed countries only emit about one-third of the world's CO2 emissions.
China and India emit about 40%, and the remaining developing countries
about 25%. Even if developed countries alone make efforts, we won’t get near Net
Zero by 2050.
Developing
countries will continue to grow economically and increase energy consumption
Developing
countries will continue to grow economically and increase energy consumption to
become richer. Energy consumption increases CO2 emissions. Green Growth is a
concept that can generally be established with low growth of around 2% per
year. Even if energy consumption increases, a measure to curb the increase in
CO2 emissions is to switch from fossil fuels to renewable energy.
Electricity
demand remains constant in developed countries, but increases in developing
countries
In general,
electricity demand in developed countries is not increasing due to low economic
growth. On the other hand, many developing countries have increased electricity
demand due to economic growth, and need to increase power generation
facilities. This difference is not widely recognized, but it has a significant impact
on the adoption of wind and solar power.
Wind and solar power
are VRE, whose output depends on the weather
Wind and solar
power are unstable electricity (Variable Renewable Energy, VRE) whose output
changes depending on the weather. In addition to short-term output
fluctuations, VRE also has large seasonal fluctuations. Compared to developed
countries where electricity demand is not increasing, developing countries,
which need to increase their power generation facilities, will incur a large
economic burden for introducing VRE, as explained below.
VRE
cannot be selected to meet increasing electricity demand
If the increase in electricity demand is not addressed timely, economic
growth will be hindered. Developed countries where electricity demand is
not increasing are installing VRE only to reduce CO2 emissions. On the
other hand, if developing countries that need to increase power generation
select VRE, they will need to install backup facilities in case VRE output
drops due to weather.
Backup facilities
will be power generation facilities or energy storage facilities. VRE often
generates surplus electricity, so there is some rationality in having energy
storage facilities installed. However, energy storage facilities are much more
expensive than power generation facilities, so they will not be adopted in developing
countries.
So, should VRE be
equipped with backup power generation facilities? In developing countries with
limited funds, such foolish double investments will not be made. In the end,
the increase in electricity demand will be met by building new thermal power
plants, and VRE will be introduced little by litttle within the scope of economic
margins.
Developed countries cannot demand that developing countries reduce their CO2 emissions
In recent years, CO2 emissions in developed countries have been decreasing
or remaining stable, while CO2 emissions in developing countries have continued
to increase.
Should we strongly
urge developing countries, which are increasing their CO2 emissions, to reduce
their emissions? However, CO2 emissions per capita are significantly lower than
in developed countries, and it is developed countries that have emitted a lot
of CO2 up until now. It is probably not possible to ask developing countries to
reduce their emissions.
Cooperation
of developing countries, whose populations are five times that of developed
countries, is essential to reducing global CO2 emissions
However, CO2
emissions cannot be reduced without the cooperation of developing countries,
which have five times the population.
EU-led global
warming countermeasures need to be reconsidered. The EU is already a wealthy,
economically powerful, and low-growth society. The power grid that covers the
entire EU also plays an important role in the introduction of VRE.
In addition, the
Nordic countries, which are leading the EU in global warming countermeasures,
have a population density one order of magnitude lower, have relatively high potential
for hydroelectric power generation, and also tolerate nuclear power. Low per
capita CO2 emissions have not been achieved solely through high environmental
awareness.
New
measures to reduce CO2 emissions are needed
If we want
developing countries to reduce CO2 emissions, we need measures that impose a
low economic burden. Perhaps technological and financial support from developed
countries will also be necessary. As for reducing CO2 emissions in developing
countries where the economy is growing and demand for electricity is
increasing, the only things I can think of are the spread of nuclear power and
a shift from coal to natural gas.
Why
switch to natural gas now?
There are safety
concerns about the spread of nuclear power in developing countries. Facility
management by developed countries will be necessary.
This article describes the shift from coal to natural gas. You may be thinking,
"Why switch to natural gas now?" However, as of 2021, coal accounts
for 36% of the world's fossil fuel supply and nearly 60% in developing
countries. 60% of coal is used for power generation, and this is sure to
increase in the future.
Environmentalists
may be concerned about carbon lock-in when switching from coal to natural gas.
However, VRE cannot meet the growing demand for electricity. We also cannot
wait for the development of a complete hydrogen infrastructure as a backup for
VRE.
As you know, China is by far the largest coal consumer, followed by India.
China's coal consumption may peak around 2030 and then decline. However,
even in the 2020s, China's coal consumption continues to increase.
Meanwhile, India's economy may continue to grow until the mid-2040s, and
it may increase its coal consumption. Other developing countries, even
if their coal consumption is not that high now, will continue to increase.
Natural
gas conversion in developing countries reduces global CO2 emissions by 10%
The CO2 emissions per calorific value of natural gas combustion are around
0.55 times that of average bituminous coal. Even in the LCA evaluation
of thermal power generation that takes into account methane leakage and
coalbed methane, the CO2 emissions of natural gas are roughly half that
of coal.
If half of the
coal consumption in developing countries as of 2021 were converted to natural
gas, global CO2 emissions could be reduced by nearly 10%.
There are no
significant technical issues in switching from coal to natural gas consumption.
However, it is necessary to increase natural gas production and supply capacity
first. If China were to shift from coal to natural gas consumption as things
stand, the world’s natural gas supply would immediately become insufficient and
prices would soar.
It is not easy to
significantly increase production capacity before natural gas consumption
increases. This calls for developed countries to exercise their ability to make
adjustments. However, if they are unable to do even this much, there is no way
they can achieve Net Zero.
China's
shift to natural gas
Currently, China relies on coal for nearly 70% of its fossil fuel consumption
and India for nearly 60%, because they aim for economic growth by
relying on cheap fuels that are produced in large quantities domestically.
China needs to eliminate the huge income disparity in order to maintain
the Communist Party regime, and therefore needs to continue to experience
economic growth.
China is at the
level just before the "high-income country" level in the World Bank's
income classification based on GNI per capita. In 2020, then-Premier Li Keqiang
said, "China is a developing country with a large population, and the
average annual income per capita is 30,000 yuan, but there are 600 million
people with an average monthly income of 1,000 yuan." About half of
China's population is thought to be at the level of developed countries, and
the other half at the level of developing countries.
China's per capita CO2 emissions are at the same level as Japan's, so I
think that the per capita CO2 emissions of a population that is about half
that of developed countries exceeds the average for developed countries.
Shifting from cheap domestically produced coal to imported natural gas
may be a burden on economic growth, but having achieved economic growth,
China must reduce its coal consumption in order to decrease CO2 emissions.
India's
shift to natural gas
Meanwhile, India, which is classified as a lower-middle income country,
is attracting attention from around the world as the largest population
and high expectations for future economic growth. However, the country
currently faces poverty and needs to continue to achieve economic growth.
Developed
countries have become wealthy by consuming large amounts of cheap energy and
have emitted large amounts of CO2, so they cannot force India to switch to
natural gas. If we want India to switch to natural gas in order to reduce
global CO2 emissions, I believe that support is essential. The same can be said
for other developing countries.
Conclusion
I believe that CO2
emissions in developed countries will decrease even if they are not on target.
However, in developing countries, the increase in electricity demand due to
economic growth will be met by thermal power generation, and wind and solar
power generation will only increase slowly, so CO2 emissions will continue to
increase.
In addition,
existing wind and solar power generation will reach the end of their life in about
25 years. The removal of wind power facilities and mega solar will also be a
burden for developing countries.
Even if it is not
possible to align the schedule with net zero by 2050, effective CO2 reduction
measures that developing countries can implement are necessary to reduce global
CO2 emissions.
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