CO2 emissions in developed countries account for one-third of the world
Developed countries only emit about one-third of the world's CO2 emissions. China and India emit about 40%, and the remaining developing countries about 25%. Even if developed countries alone make efforts, we won’t get near Net Zero by 2050.

Developing countries will continue to grow economically and increase energy consumption
Developing countries will continue to grow economically and increase energy consumption to become richer. Energy consumption increases CO2 emissions. Green Growth is a concept that can generally be established with low growth of around 2% per year. Even if energy consumption increases, a measure to curb the increase in CO2 emissions is to switch from fossil fuels to renewable energy.

Electricity demand remains constant in developed countries, but increases in developing countries

In general, electricity demand in developed countries is not increasing due to low economic growth. On the other hand, many developing countries have increased electricity demand due to economic growth, and need to increase power generation facilities. This difference is not widely recognized, but it has a significant impact on the adoption of wind and solar power.

Wind and solar power are VRE, whose output depends on the weather
Wind and solar power are unstable electricity (Variable Renewable Energy, VRE) whose output changes depending on the weather. In addition to short-term output fluctuations, VRE also has large seasonal fluctuations. Compared to developed countries where electricity demand is not increasing, developing countries, which need to increase their power generation facilities, will incur a large economic burden for introducing VRE, as explained below.

VRE cannot be selected to meet increasing electricity demand
Delays in reducing CO2 emissions will not cause immediate inconvenience, but economic growth will be hindered if the increase in electricity demand is not addressed timely. Developed countries where electricity demand is not increasing are installing VRE only to reduce CO2 emissions. On the other hand, if developing countries that need to increase power generation select VRE, they will need to install backup facilities in case VRE output drops due to weather.

Backup facilities will be power generation facilities or energy storage facilities. VRE often generates surplus electricity, so there is some rationality in having energy storage facilities installed. However, energy storage facilities are much more expensive than power generation facilities, so they will not be adopted in developing countries.

So, should VRE be equipped with backup power generation facilities? In developing countries with limited funds, such foolish double investments will not be made. In the end, the increase in electricity demand will be met by building new thermal power plants, and VRE will be introduced little by litttle within the scope of economic margins.

Developed countries cannot demand that developing countries reduce their CO2 emissions
In developing countries, the introduction of VRE is progressing slowly, while thermal power generation will increase due to the increase in energy consumption caused by economic growth. In recent years, CO2 emissions in developed countries have been decreasing or remaining flat.

Should we strongly urge developing countries, which are increasing their CO2 emissions, to reduce their emissions? However, CO2 emissions per capita are significantly lower than in developed countries, and it is developed countries that have emitted a lot of CO2 up until now. It is probably not possible to ask developing countries to reduce their emissions.

Cooperation of developing countries, whose populations are five times that of developed countries, is essential to reducing global CO2 emissions
However, CO2 emissions cannot be reduced without the cooperation of developing countries, which have five times the population.

EU-led global warming countermeasures need to be reconsidered. The EU is already a wealthy, economically powerful, and low-growth society. The power grid that covers the entire EU also plays an important role in the introduction of VRE.
In addition, the Nordic countries, which are leading the EU in global warming countermeasures, have a population density one order of magnitude lower, have relatively high potential for hydroelectric power generation, and also tolerate nuclear power. Low per capita CO2 emissions have not been achieved solely through high environmental awareness.

New measures to reduce CO2 emissions are needed
If we want developing countries to reduce CO2 emissions, we need measures that impose a low economic burden. Perhaps technological and financial support from developed countries will also be necessary. As for reducing CO2 emissions in developing countries where the economy is growing and demand for electricity is increasing, the only things I can think of are the spread of nuclear power and a shift from coal to natural gas.

Why switch to natural gas now?
There are safety concerns about the spread of nuclear power in developing countries. Facility management by developed countries will be necessary.

This article describes the shift from coal to natural gas. You may be thinking, "Why switch to natural gas now?" However, as of 2021, coal accounts for 36% of the world's fossil fuel supply and nearly 60% in developing countries. 60% of coal is used for power generation, and this is sure to increase in the future.

Environmentalists may be concerned about carbon lock-in when switching from coal to natural gas. However, VRE cannot meet the growing demand for electricity. We also cannot wait for the development of a complete hydrogen infrastructure as a backup for VRE.

As you know, China is by far the largest coal consumer, followed by India. China's coal consumption may peak around 2030 and then decline. Meanwhile, India's economy may continue to grow until the mid-2040s, and it may increase its coal consumption. Other developing countries, even if their coal consumption is not that high now, will continue to increase.

Natural gas conversion in developing countries reduces global CO2 emissions by 10%

The CO2 emissions per calorific value of natural gas combustion are around 0.55 times that of average bituminous coal. Even in the LCA evaluation of thermal power generation that takes into account methane leakage and coalbed methane, the CO2 emissions of natural gas are roughly half that of coal.

If half of the coal consumption in developing countries as of 2021 were converted to natural gas, global CO2 emissions could be reduced by nearly 10%.

There are no significant technical issues in switching from coal to natural gas consumption. However, it is necessary to increase natural gas production and supply capacity first. If China were to shift from coal to natural gas consumption as things stand, the world’s natural gas supply would immediately become insufficient and prices would soar.

It is not easy to significantly increase production capacity before natural gas consumption increases. This calls for developed countries to exercise their ability to make adjustments. However, if they are unable to do even this much, there is no way they can achieve Net Zero.

China's shift to natural gas
Currently, China relies on coal for nearly 70% of its fossil fuel consumption and India  for nearly 60%, because they aim for economic growth by relying on cheap fuels that are produced in large quantities domestically.

China is at the level just before the "high-income country" level in the World Bank's income classification based on GNI per capita. In 2020, then-Premier Li Keqiang said, "China is a developing country with a large population, and the average annual income per capita is 30,000 yuan, but there are 600 million people with an average monthly income of 1,000 yuan." About half of China's population is thought to be at the level of developed countries, and the other half at the level of developing countries.

China's per capita CO2 emissions are at the same level as Japan's, so I think that the per capita CO2 emissions of a population that is about half that of developed countries exceeds the average for developed countries. Shifting from cheap domestically produced coal to imported natural gas may be a burden on economic growth, but it is necessary to do so in order to reduce CO2 emissions.

To maintain the Chinese Communist Party's regime, it is essential to eliminate the large income gap, and economic growth is necessary in the future.

India's shift to natural gas
On the other hand, India, which is classified as lower middle income, is attracting attention as a major country with a growing economy, but it is poor and still needs to continue its economic growth.

Developed countries have become wealthy by consuming large amounts of cheap energy and have emitted large amounts of CO2, so they cannot force India to switch to natural gas. If we want India to switch to natural gas in order to reduce global CO2 emissions, I believe that support is essential. The same can be said for other developing countries.

Conclusion
I think that CO2 emissions in developed countries will decrease, even if not according to target. However, developing countries will continue to increase their CO2 emissions because they respond to the increase in electricity demand due to economic growth by increasing thermal power generation, and wind and solar power generation will only increase slowly. If we aim to significantly reduce global CO2 emissions, we need CO2 reduction measures that developing countries can accept.