It's no surprise that global GHG emissions aren't decreasing

By: Yuzo Tanaka, Japanese researcher
November 28, 2024

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Introduction
There is a great deal of interest in global warming. Figure 1 uses data from Berkeley Earth.The Paris Agreement aims to limit the rise in global average temperature to less than 2℃, aiming for 1.5℃, but it is certain that it will exceed 1.5℃ in the 2030s.



Figure 2 uses data downloaded from Climate Watch's Data Explorer. 9 years have passed since the adoption of the Paris Agreement, but global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions continue to increase.



While GHG emissions in developed countries are decreasing, emissions in developing countries, which account for about two-thirds of global GHG emissions, continue to increase. The target cannot be achieved if only developed countries reduce their emissions.




Classification of countries around the world by income level
This report classifies countries around the world into groups based on income level, and shows GHG emissions and their reduction status in relation to wealth.

As shown in Table 1, the classification of each country is based on the World Bank's four-level classification by GNI per capita for FY22.



According to the World Bank's classification, the EU-28 countries, including the UK, which has a large impact on reducing GHG emissions, are classified as High income countries except for Bulgaria, and China is classified as an Upper-middle income country. In this report, High income countries excluding the EU-28 countries are named "High income-mod.", and the combined group of Upper-middle income countries and Lower-middle income countries excluding China is named "Middle income-mod.".

The GHG emissions, GDP, etc. of about 200 countries and regions around the world were compiled, divided into five groups.

The most significant drivers of GHG emissions growth are middle-income countries, including China, which accounts for three-quarters of the world's population but less than 40% of its GDP in 2022.






Middle-income country emissions
As shown in Figure 6, GHG emissions from the EU-28 have continued to decline, and High income-mod. have also started to decline in recent years. Meanwhile, Middle income-mod. and China, in addition to having large GHG emissions, have continued to increase significantly. Low income countries have also increased, but their emissions are  low.



It is natural that large countries with large populations have large GHG emissions. GHG emissions per capita is an easy-to-understand indicator for comparing the amount of GHG emissions of each country and evaluating the lack of reduction efforts. Figure 7 shows the trends in per capita GHG emissions for each group.



In recent years, the per capita GHG emissions of Middle income-mod. have been less than one-third of those of High income-mod.. Even compared to the EU-28, where GHG emissions reductions have been progressing, the figure is only about 60% lower. It is not surprising that Middle income-mod. are not proactive in reducing GHG emissions, which entails economic burdens.

Figure 8 shows the trend of real GDP per capita. In recent years, the value of Middle income-mod. has been extremely low, less than one-tenth of that of High income-mod., and 12% of that of the EU-28. It is natural for Middle income-mod. to aim for economic growth. However, economic growth increases energy consumption and GHG emissions.



Figure 9 shows the trends in GDP growth rates for each group. This was calculated from the annual change in real GDP. Because the fluctuations are large and difficult to understand, a three-period moving average is also shown.



Growth rates in recent years have fluctuated due to the COVID-19 pandemic, but while High income-mod. and the EU-28 have grown at less than 2%, Middle income-mod. have remained at around 3% or higher.

The concept of green growth was proposed around 2010, but it has since been pointed out that it is only work with low growth. Another reason for the decline in GHG emissions in developed countries in recent years is that manufacturing has been shifting from developed to developing countries.

Figure 10, using international data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration  shows trends in primary energy supply for each group.



In recent years, primary energy supplies in the EU-28 have been declining slowly, with High income-mod. remaining roughly stable, while China and Middle income-mod. have increased substantially.

As with primary energy supply in Figure 10, electricity demand in the EU-28 is gradually decreasing, while electricity demand in High income-mod. is almost flat. In contrast, electricity demand in China and Middle income-mod. is increasing significantly.



Such trends in electricity demand affect the expansion of wind and solar power generation.

Since high income countries do not have an increase in electricity demand, they only need to introduce and expand wind and solar power generation to reduce CO2 emissions. In contrast, middle income countries are required to meet the electricity demand and reduce CO2 emissions.

A stable supply of cheap electricity is essential for economic growth. As a result, middle-income countries, which are striving for economic growth but lack funds for capital investment, will respond to increased electricity demand by expanding traditional power generation such as fossil fuel power plants, and will gradually introduce wind and solar power within their surplus capacity.

As shown in Figure 12, the EU-28, which has led the introduction of renewable energy, has the highest ratio of wind and solar power generation, followed by High income-mod., China, and Middle income-mod., with a clear division.



China, which is classified as a middle income country, has the same implementation rate as High income-mod.. China's GHG emissions are a major problem for the increase in global emissions, so they will be discussed in the next section.


The China Problem
China has achieved economic growth using domestically produced coal as an energy source. Currently, China alone consumes more than half of the world's coal.



China, the country with the largest GHG emissions, has stated that it will peak its CO2 emissions by 2030 and achieve net zero by 2060. I think China will, to its credit, achieve peak by 2030.

After that, China will likely slowly reduce GHG emissions in order to continue its economic growth. If developed countries are likely to achieve net zero GHG emissions by 2050 around 2040, I think China will also work to reduce emissions toward 2060.

Although the economy has slowed, China's coal consumption continues to grow. Figure 14 shows the trend in China 's electricity generation in recent years, based on monthly data reported by the National Bureau of Statistics of China . Thermal power generation, with coal-fired power accounting for over 90% of total power generation, continues to increase.

In order to achieve carbon peaking by 2030, I think China will need to expand the introduction of wind and solar power generation to a certain extent.



In 2020, then-Premier Li Keqiang said, "China is a populous developing country with an average annual income of 30,000 yuan per capita, but there are 600 million people with an average monthly income of 1,000 yuan." Half of China's population is at the level of developed countries, and the other half is at the level of developing countries.

I suppose that half of China's population probably emits GHG emissions per capita at the same level as high income countries. I think that China has reached a stage where it must make efforts to reduce GHG emissions on par with high income countries.

Rather than increasing the proportion of wind and solar power to around 14%, I would like China to reduce its coal consumption to about one-third of its current level.




Emissions reduction measures for middle income countries
To repeat, the current per capita GHG emissions in Middle income-mod. are less than one-third of those in High income-mod., and their per capita GDP is less than one-tenth. It is not surprising that Middle income-mod. pursue economic growth and are reluctant to reduce GHG emissions, which are an economic burden.

This situation should be expected to continue until the per capita GHG emissions of High income-mod. approach the level of those of Middle income-mod.. In the meantime, Middle income-mod. should be required to implement GHG reduction measures that are less economically burdensome than expanding wind and solar power.

Such GHG emission reduction measures could include energy saving technologies, fuel conversion to natural gas in countries that are overly dependent on coal, and, although some may disagree, nuclear power generation, etc. Note that in order to promote fuel conversion from coal to natural gas, a sufficient and stable supply of natural gas would be necessary.

A brief summary of energy saving technologies is given below. Around the time of the oil crisis, Japanese companies made many energy saving investments that could pay for themselves in 2-3 years. Investments that required 4-5 years to pay for themselves were carefully considered. Many of them were implemented without excessive subsidies.

Even among home appliances, air conditioners and refrigerators, which consume a lot of electricity, have become surprisingly energy-efficient, and people continue to buy them even though they are more expensive. LED lights have spread to almost every home. The proportion of hybrid cars in Japan has increased significantly.

In order to popularize solar power generation in Japan, a feed-in tariff system was implemented that set an abnormally high purchase price, ignoring the international price of solar panels. However, there are many energy-saving technologies that can generally recoup the investment without relying on such measures.

In order to enable middle income countries to curb increases in CO2 emissions while experiencing economic growth, I believe that developed countries as a whole should provide technical assistance and a certain amount of financial support to widely disseminate energy saving technologies to middle income countries.

You may think that this is just a promotion of energy saving technologies, but I cannot think of any other effective emissions reduction measures that middle income countries can implement over the next decade or so without putting too much of a burden on their economies.

I am not denying the use of wind and solar power, but even if middle income countries are asked to use them, we cannot expect much increase in their adoption, and global GHG emissions will continue to increase. The main point of this report is that middle income countries need different emission reduction measures from those currently required.